WP 5 Create Risk and Uncertainty Reduction Framework.

Dear all - this is a refined draft of the FIFTH Erasmus+ Knowledge Alliance Workpackage with a focus on industrial whole product lifecycles. Comments appreciated as we work to refine and align with the potential workpackage owner. Please note that the supporting workpackages are intended for project participants either owning other workpackages or interested in supporting workpackages only. The image shows the propagation of estimate uncertainty for costs in an industrial context as a reminder of the challenge associated with estimating the variance of change over time which is a key perspective of this workpackage. If you are interested in a supporting workpackage please contact oliver.schwabe@innovation-web.eu - you will be expected to contribute to shaping this and your own workpackage.
Description
This implementation workpackage creates a risk and uncertainty assessment and monitoring framework suited for identifying actionable treatments to reduce the uncertainty range of innovation diffusion estimates generated by the simulator validated in workpackage 4. The workpackage serves as the foundation for all following workpackage. The aim of the workpackage is to support organizations in increasing the probability of innovations progressing from ideation through market saturation by identifying and implementing suitable interventions as derived from results generated by the simulator. This is the last workpackage focusing on the attributes of the innovation SYSTEM which ideas flow through and sets the foundation for workpackage 6 “Create Design Principles for Rapid Diffusion of Innovative Ideas.” where the focus moves to individual (clusters of) ideas passing through that system.

Tasks
The estimated start date is month #13 of the project and the estimated end date is month 24 of the project, although the team will continue to support other workpackages during the complete duration of the project. All tasks will be made transparent to the public as open access and public domain. The tasks of the workpackage are: 
  • Conduct a literature research on inverse uncertainty quantification approaches applicable to the diffusion of innovations from ideation through market saturation. Submit the results as a journal publication.
  • Validate the geometric uncertainty forecasting model embedded in the simulator from the perspectives of research and practice using case generated in year 1 of the project.
  • Develop a technique for assessing the mathematical complexity of estimating scenarios in the simulator as the basis for identifying actionable treatments.
  • Create a technique for identifying risk threats and opportunities to achieving the performance objectives over the course of the whole product life cycle.
  • Identify a range of actionable treatments aligned to the mathematical complexity of estimating scenarios based on the workpackage 4 insights on co-variance of systemic variables and performance objectives.
  • Create a method for estimating the effectiveness of interactions using the simulator.
  • Create a generic scoring scheme for assessing the risk threat and opportunity probabilities and impacts (includes definition of relevant assessment variables and ranges).
  • Validate potential effectiveness of the framework using a though experiment and game.
  • Pilot an approach for visualizing risk and uncertainty progression (including impact of treatment) using immersive and augmented reality approaches.
  • Summarize and publish framework as a conference contribution (incl. peer reviewed publication in conference proceedings).
  •  Develop guidance for workpackage 6 “Create Design Principles for Rapid Diffusion of Innovative Ideas.”

Deliverables

The deliverables are outcomes of the tasks and will be made available in the public domain. 
  • Journal publication submission on inverse uncertainty quantification approaches applicable to the diffusion of innovations from ideation through market saturation.
  • A technique for assessing the mathematical complexity of estimating scenarios in the simulator as the basis for identifying actionable treatments.
  • A technique for identifying risk threats and opportunities to achieving the performance objectives over the course of the whole product life cycle.
  • Actionable treatments aligned to the mathematical complexity of estimating scenarios based on the workpackage 4 insights on co-variance of systemic variables and performance objectives.
  • A method for estimating the effectiveness of interactions using the simulator.
  • A generic scoring scheme for assessing the risk threat and opportunity probabilities and impacts (includes definition of relevant assessment variables and ranges).
  • An approach for visualizing risk and uncertainty progression (including impact of treatment) using immersive and augmented reality approaches.
  • Conference contribution (incl. peer reviewed publication in conference proceedings) on the summarized framework.
  • Guidance for workpackage 6 “Create Design Principles for Rapid Diffusion of Innovative Ideas.”
  • One hour monthly alignment calls with all project participants to inform of workpackage progress.

Resourcing

This workpackage will run for 12 consecutive months and will be primarily resourced by two full time researchers.  Six supporting workpackages of 160 hours each support conducting the workpackage and one funded Master project is planned as further aid to workpackage delivery. One funded PhD position is also provided for, whereby this assumes a three year full time research effort that commences at the beginning of year 1 of the project and ends with the end of year 3 of the project.
 
If you are interested in learning more please visit us at www.innovation-web.eu, our LinkedIn Group at https://www.linkedin.com/groups/8779542/, our blog at https://www.innovation-web.eu/entov-hvm-blog, our Researchgate project page at https://www.researchgate.net/project/Open-European-Network-for-Enterprise-Innovation-in-High-Value-Manufacturing-ENTOV-HVM and our Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/2014779865300180/. You can also follow us via Twitter: @owschwabe (#innovationweb) and the LinkedIn Group page https://www.linkedin.com/company/entov.
 

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